Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 93.9%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 43 minutos
21 abr 23, 8:00 UTC1 ene 00, 7:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?
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PolymarketReglas
Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.
- To quantify this, National Geographic says:
- "A species is classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 70 percent and the cause of the decline is known.
- A species is also classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 50 percent and the cause of the decline is not known." so I will allow a 50% decrease to resolve this as "yes" and will otherwise resolve this as "no"
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will humans be an endangered species by 2100??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 94% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will humans be an endangered species by 2100??
- Está previsto que Will humans be an endangered species by 2100? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2100.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will humans be an endangered species by 2100??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.