Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.9%
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14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado21 abr 23, 8:00 UTC1 ene 00, 7:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?
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PolymarketReglas
Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.
- To quantify this, National Geographic says:
- "A species is classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 70 percent and the cause of the decline is known.
- A species is also classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 50 percent and the cause of the decline is not known." so I will allow a 50% decrease to resolve this as "yes" and will otherwise resolve this as "no"