Will Federal Agents draw guns on voters on Election Day 2026
PolíticaOne-OffElecciónPolítica de EE. UU.GeopolíticaCrimen y justicia13d
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 79.2%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado21 mar 26, 22:56 UTC4 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if federal agents (including FBI, ICE, DHS, or other federal law enforcement) draw firearms on voters at polling locations on Election Day 2026 (November 3, 2026).
- The act of drawing a gun must occur at or immediately adjacent to a polling place and be directed at or in the presence of voters.
- This market resolves NO if no such incident occurs by the end of Election Day 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by credible news reports from major outlets documenting the incident.
- Ambiguous cases (e.g., agents drawing weapons in response to an active threat unrelated to voting) will resolve NO unless the primary context is voter intimidation or election interference.
