Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?
PolíticaGeopolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 62.1%
Pronosticadores
280
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado3 feb 26, 9:42 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Federal Agents draw guns on voters on Election Day 2026
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
PolymarketWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
PolymarketMidterms: which issue matters most to voters?
KalshiIf Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution Criteria
- Federal law explicitly prohibits deploying federal troops or armed federal law enforcement to any polling place, with violations carrying criminal penalties including fines and imprisonment of up to five years.
- This market resolves YES if, during the 2026 midterm elections or 2028 presidential election, credible reporting documents the presence of active-duty military personnel, National Guard troops (when federalized), or federal law enforcement agents (including ICE, DHS, or FBI) stationed at, near, or with apparent intent to monitor voting booths or polling locations.
- The presence must be armed or in official capacity with election-related authority.
- Unarmed plainclothes poll observers or off-duty military members voting do not count.
- Resolution sources: news reports from major outlets (AP, Reuters, NPR, etc.), court filings, official statements from election officials or DOJ, or documented evidence from election monitoring organizations.