Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)
IAOne-Off8a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 52.1%
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado18 ene 25, 20:28 UTC18 feb 35, 3:59 UTC
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Eliezer Yudkowsky, a prominent AI researcher and rationalist, has made public bets regarding UFOs, expressing skepticism about their extraterrestrial origin.
- His current stance on UFOs is rooted in skepticism of the extraterrestrial hypothesis, arguing that any advanced civilization capable of interstellar travel would likely be superintelligent and would have already had a visible impact on Earth.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, within one year after losing his UFO bet, Eliezer Yudkowsky makes public statements (via blog posts, social media, interviews, or other public forums) explicitly connecting or attributing the UFO phenomenon to artificial intelligence or AI-related technology.
- The market will resolve NO if:
- Yudkowsky does not make such associations within the one-year timeframe
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 52% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)?
- Está previsto que Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins) se resuelva el 18 de febrero de 2035.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Eliezer Yudkowsky, a prominent AI researcher and rationalist, has made public bets regarding UFOs, expressing skepticism about their extraterrestrial origin.