At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
IAOne-Off8a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 54.8%
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221
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 55 minutos
Retrasado14 mar 23, 20:29 UTC1 ene 35, 8:00 UTC
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KalshiReglas
If Eliezer believes that there's at least a 75% chance of an AI existential risk coming to pass within the next 50 years, this resolves YES.
- (Other interpretations of p(doom) don't matter.)
- I'll resolve the market based on public statements from them in the previous and subsequent few months.
- Eliezer doesn't like putting explicit probabilities on this, so I'll attempt to infer their beliefs from their more subjective statements.
- Resolves N/A in the event that Eliezer is no longer alive/conscious or AI doom has already occurred.