Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 14:18 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Completes full term 80.3%Líder entre 5 opciones
Completes full term 80.3%Pronosticadores
160
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado13 jun 25, 17:31 UTC21 ene 29, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Peter Hegseth be impeached during Trump's second presidential term?
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Manifold MarketsWill either Joe Biden or Donald Trump pass away while serving their second presidential term?
Manifold MarketsLula to finish his presidential term?
FutuurWill Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
the named outcome Trump remains President and alive through January 20, 2029, and peacefully transfers power on that date as required by the Constitution.
- Staying in office beyond January 20, 2029 for any reason will not count as completing a full term.
- the named outcome Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 by resignation, impeachment, 25th Amendment process, legal action, incapacity, voluntary hand-over, exile, coup, or any other non-fatal removal, and remains alive.
- If Trump is still claiming presidential authority after Jan 20, 2029, thus not ‘completing’ his term, the market will resolve to this option.
- the named outcome
- Trump dies from disease, aging, or any internal medical cause while serving as President.
