Will Trump’s second presidential term NOT end exactly on January 20, 2029, due to war, emergency, impeachment, or other
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónGeopolíticaRusia / Ucrania2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 74.6%
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9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 57 minutos
Retrasado5 ene 26, 8:22 UTC21 ene 29, 11:59 UTC
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Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election and is serving his second presidential term, which under normal constitutional rules should end exactly at 12:00 PM (noon) on January 20, 2029, as defined by the 20th Amendment.
- This market resolves YES if Trump’s second term does not end exactly at that time, for any reason, including the term being extended, shortened, suspended, or otherwise altered.
- In other words, this market asks whether anything abnormal happens to prevent the term from ending exactly on schedule.
- Events that trigger a YES resolution (non-exhaustive)
- Any of the following count as YES, provided they legally affect the term’s end:
- War or armed conflict used to justify continuation or suspension of normal constitutional processes
