Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.5%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 58 minutos
Retrasado3 ene 26, 10:20 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if China transitions to a liberal democracy by December 31, 2029.
- A liberal democracy is defined as a system with: free and fair multi-party elections for national leadership, freedom of speech and assembly, an independent judiciary, and meaningful political opposition.
- Resolution will be determined by reference to Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World reports, which assess political rights and civil liberties.
- The market resolves YES only if Freedom House rates China as "Free" (indicating a liberal democracy) by the deadline.
- If China remains "Partly Free" or "Not Free," the market resolves NO.
