Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 71.9%
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
13 sept 26, 3:08 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurReglas
Will China either significantly de facto or de jure ban open source AI before the United States of America.
- A de facto ban is decided by what is, by reasonable likelihood causally linked to legislation, a significant lagging of the respective country's open frontier relative to it's prior trend is considered a "ban".
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-8.5pt77%
- December 15,-22.5pt60%
- November 30,-27.0pt51%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 3,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 199,2 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+1.5pt14.4%
- Gemini+1.9pt9.6%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10 M €
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 23.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 22.7%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 153,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.5%+9.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 5.6%+45.0pt91%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 171 mil €
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 199,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Top Text to Speech AI this week
- Top Text to Image AI this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Next Claude Opus released on?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 72% a fecha de 19 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States?
- Está previsto que Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will China either significantly de facto or de jure ban open source AI before the United States of America.