Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 5:51 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 68.3%
Pronosticadores
66
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado3 dic 22, 16:51 UTC1 ene 29, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsReglas
In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)
- PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES
- Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.