Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 90.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado28 mar 26, 4:17 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a score above 95% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution criteria:
- Score must be reported on the official ARC Prize leaderboard (arcprize.org) or in a peer-reviewed paper
- Must be ARC-AGI-2 specifically (not ARC-AGI-1 or other variants)
- Private/public leaderboard scores both count
- The model can use any approach (LLM, neuro-symbolic, program synthesis, etc.)
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 91% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026??
- Está previsto que Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a score above 95% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by December 31, 2026.