Will any AI model score 60+ on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index by November 20, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 58%
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Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado23 oct 26, 12:01 UTC20 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if, at any point between this market's creation and November 20, 2026, 23:59 UTC, any model shows a score of 60 or higher on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, as displayed on https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models (the whole-number score shown on the site, so a model displayed as "60" counts).
- Where it stands at creation (Oct 23, 2026): the top model is Claude Opus 5.5 (max) at 57.6 (displayed 58).
- Next are Claude Sonnet 5.5 (max) at 56.0, Meta's Muse Wonder Full (max) at 55.8, GPT-6 Astra (max) at 52.7 and Gemini 4 Argon (high) at 52.6.
- So YES needs a model about 2.4 points above today's best.
- Any lab and any reasoning setting counts, including "max" or "with fallback" variants, as long as Artificial Analysis lists it on the leaderboard.
- Scores marked as estimated by Artificial Analysis count if they are displayed on the leaderboard.
