Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 77.2%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado2 jun 23, 9:04 UTC2 ene 30, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketTencent market share this week
KalshiReglas
market will resolve jan 1, 2030. "becoming a citizen" is defined as passing whatever citizenship test the country in question has, OR a country's lawmakers deciding that one or more AIs is human enough to be granted citizen status after being assembled/programmed in that country, much like how a baby born there is granted citizen status.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt67.3%
- ChatGPT+0.9pt13.1%
- Gemini+3.1pt12.2%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 88,8 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.0pt74%
- December 15,-9.5pt67%
- November 30,-17.0pt50%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-1.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-6.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-1.0pt16.7%
+7 resultados más
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
- Above 5.6%+33.0pt98%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 224,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 23.6%+3.0pt99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 22.7%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 197,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 234,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 77% a fecha de 20 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030??
- Está previsto que will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: market will resolve jan 1, 2030. "becoming a citizen" is defined as passing whatever citizenship test the country in question has, OR a country's lawmakers deciding that one or more AIs is human enough to be granted citizen status after being assembled/programmed in that country, much like how a baby born there is granted citizen status.