Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 81.5%
Pronosticadores
63
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
11 sept 26, 0:44 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Models have been doing near-magic feats recently.
- Will an AI do Magic before the end of next year? (that we know of)
- The following things are considered magic:
- Standard temperature and pressure superconductor developed
- Factoring RSA-2048
- All of @jim's predictions come true
Mercados abiertos
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)79%
- New People (NL)-0.2pt17%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 23,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 192,2 mil €
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December7%
- September 30,1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 20,4 M €
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)+3.0pt88.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt6.9%
- New People (NL)-1.6pt3.9%
+5 resultados más
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- December 31-3.0pt69%
- November 3064%
- October 31-3.0pt45%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt25%
- October 31-1.5pt13%
- September 30+0.9pt4%
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–33944.1%
- 340–354+0.5pt23.5%
- 310–324+2.1pt17.6%
+4 resultados más
- Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
- When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together?
- Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 82% a fecha de 12 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]?
- Está previsto que Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description] se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Models have been doing near-magic feats recently.