Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
One-OffIATecnologíaCiencia3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 99%
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado29 dic 24, 8:34 UTC31 dic 29, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.
- The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory.
- Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days.
- FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination.
- Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community.
- As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 99% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.