Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual2026-2027 99%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado21 jun 25, 5:30 UTC1 ene 40, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiReglas
We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.
- The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory.
- Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days.
- FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination.
- Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community.
- As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress.