Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 89.4%
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25
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado1 nov 25, 14:40 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
At EOY 2026 I will ask @Bayesian , @TimothyJohnson5c16 , @Joshua , @Ziddletwix , and @nikki whether they believe it has.
- If after a week any disagree this question will resolve NO.
- Otherwise, it will resolve YES.
- If any of the users is unreachable, they will not be taken into account for the resolution.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
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- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
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- 135,2 mil €
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- 102,7 mil €
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- 9,1 M €
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 89% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: At EOY 2026 I will ask @Bayesian , @TimothyJohnson5c16 , @Joshua , @Ziddletwix , and @nikki whether they believe it has.