Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 68%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado6 sept 26, 19:26 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?
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KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”.
- https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/s/AoZ7CBvZcq
- [image]Resolves yes if this actually happens (the scientific discovery, regardless of whether a new model is released).
- My criteria is that this discovery (whichever field of science it applies to) must be generally considered equally or more significant than any of the Claude mathematical results Anthropic and Anthropic employees have already reported on.
- If it appears too close to tell, I will err on resolving yes.
- If multiple discoveries are reported, I will judge the most impressive one.
Mercados abiertos
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 resultados más
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- 2,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
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KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
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- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
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POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.0pt78.2%
- 1.25T–1.5T-3.0pt8.9%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.9%
+4 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 68% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO??
- Está previsto que Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”.