Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
In 2030 or earlier 55%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
75
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado26 ene 24, 9:59 UTC2 ene 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
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With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.
- This means that an AI mistake could have significant consequences.
- In this question I'm considering situations in which AI actions are directly causing an incident, accident or catastrophe resulting in $1 billion of damages.
- If the event causes loss of life, each death counts as $10 million of damages.
- The incident should be a direct consequence of the AI's decisions, actions or output.
- It should not have happened if the AI wasn't involved.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives??
- Manifold Markets cotiza In 2030 or earlier al 55% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives??
- Está previsto que Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.