Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual
In 2030 or earlier 50.6%Líder entre 7 opciones
In 2030 or earlier 50.6%Pronosticadores
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multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Cambio 7d
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Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado26 ene 24, 9:59 UTC2 ene 28, 22:59 UTC
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With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.
- This means that an AI mistake could have significant consequences.
- In this question I'm considering situations in which AI actions are directly causing an incident, accident or catastrophe resulting in $1 billion of damages.
- If the event causes loss of life, each death counts as $10 million of damages.
- The incident should be a direct consequence of the AI's decisions, actions or output.
- It should not have happened if the AI wasn't involved.
