will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
IAOne-OffTecnología4aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 77.5%
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Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado22 feb 25, 6:12 UTC31 dic 30, 21:59 UTC
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I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.
- I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.
- Also please comment if you think I've missed one:
- DeepMind/Google
- Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)
- XAI (Elon musk lab)
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 78% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author??
- Está previsto que will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.