Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 83%
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado13 mar 26, 3:45 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
New Mersenne Prime found before 2028?
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- A new Mersenne prime is discovered in 2026 if the Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search (GIMPS) discovers a new Mersenne prime number and the discovery is officially announced by December 31, 2026.
- The discovery date is when the prime is first verified as prime, not when it is announced.
- Resolution will be confirmed via the official GIMPS website at https://www.mersenne.org/primes/ or official GIMPS press releases.
- The most recent Mersenne prime, 2^136279841-1, was discovered on October 21, 2024, with 41,024,320 digits, eclipsing the previous record by more than 16 million digits.
- This is only the 52nd known Mersenne prime ever discovered.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 230,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 77,1 mil €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 109,5 mil €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,9 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 83% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria