Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 93.7%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado23 mar 26, 15:27 UTC1 ene 31, 15:22 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01?
Manifold MarketsWill a new mersenne prime be found in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew Mersenne Prime found before 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- 52 Mersenne primes are known, with the largest known prime number being 2^136279841 − 1, which is a Mersenne prime.
- This market resolves YES if M136279841 is confirmed as the 52nd known Mersenne prime.
- Resolution can be verified at the official GIMPS website: https://www.mersenne.org/primes
- M136279841 was initially identified as probably prime on October 11, 2024 by an NVIDIA A100 GPU in Dublin, Ireland, and confirmed with a Lucas-Lehmer test on October 12 by an NVIDIA H100 in San Antonio, Texas.
- This number has 41,024,320 decimal digits and is over 16 million digits larger than the previous record prime number.
Mercados abiertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 536,7 mil €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+18.0pt37.1%
- 180-199+10.0pt36.2%
- 200-219-10.0pt12.4%
+23 resultados más
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,2 M €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+39.3pt96%
- 65-89-29.7pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+3.0pt71.8%
- Before March 202717.3%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt6.4%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic89.9%
- OpenAI-1.5pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 resultados más
- Foldable iPhone Announced Price?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Next James Bond actor?
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 94% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number??
- Está previsto que Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria