Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 89.7%
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado1 mar 24, 14:02 UTC1 ene 31, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketWho replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
KalshiHow many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?
KalshiReglas
resolves yes if an AfD member serves as chancellor at any point prior to December 31, 2030
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-2.0pt74%
- New People (NL)+1.6pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 26,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 M €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio16%
- Tucker Carlson4%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 613,8 M €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-3.2pt92%
- Yes+3.2pt8%
- Volumen total
- 18,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 653,6 mil €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 190,9 M €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt87.3%
- Republican Party12.8%
- Volumen total
- 27,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 534,7 mil €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.5pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.6pt16%
+48 resultados más
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Texas Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 90% a fecha de 16 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030??
- Está previsto que Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: resolves yes if an AfD member serves as chancellor at any point prior to December 31, 2030