Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 59%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado11 ago 26, 1:35 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves YES if: Before 12:00 AM ET January 1, 2027, any U.S. federal court issues an order enjoining enforcement of, or declaring unenforceable, in whole or in substantial part, at least one of these five statutes: (1) Colorado AI Act (SB 24-205, as amended/replaced by SB 26-189), (2) California SB 53 (Transparency in Frontier AI Act), (3) New York RAISE Act, (4) Texas TRAIGA, (5) Illinois HB 3773.
- • Counts: preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, TRO, or declaratory judgment of unconstitutionality/preemption, from any federal district or appellate court, in any case (xAI v.
- Weiser, a DOJ Task Force suit, or a new industry/trade-group suit).
- • “Substantial part” = the order blocks at least one core operative obligation (e.g., the algorithmic-discrimination duties, frontier transparency/reporting requirements), not merely a severable ancillary provision like a notice formatting rule.
- Resolver judgment on edge cases, stated in advance.
- • Does NOT count: stays pending appeal of a state’s own enforcement, voluntary non-enforcement agreements, state legislative repeal/delay, or rulings on standing/venue without merits relief.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 59% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027??
- Está previsto que Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if: Before 12:00 AM ET January 1, 2027, any U.S. federal court issues an order enjoining enforcement of, or declaring unenforceable, in whole or in substantial part, at least one of these five statutes: (1) Colorado AI Act (SB 24-205, as amended/replaced by SB 26-189), (2) California SB 53 (Transparency in Frontier AI Act), (3) New York RAISE Act, (4) Texas TRAIGA, (5) Illinois HB 3773.