Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 73%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado23 oct 25, 12:00 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
[image]Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES if a model from a Chinese labs is listed at the top of the text leaderboard according to the Default sort at any point from now (Oct 23 2025) until EOY 2026.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
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- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
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- 344,9 mil €
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- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
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- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 73% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026??
- Está previsto que Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: [image]Resolution Criteria