Which of these will Chancellor John Healey say in his Budget speech on 28 October 2026?
PolíticaOne-OffOriente MedioRusia / UcraniaEuropaPolítica de EE. UU.IA3d
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualAI 66.2%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+16.2 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
21 oct 26, 0:28 UTC28 oct 26, 12:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketWill Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
KalshiReglas
Each answer resolves independently: YES if Chancellor John Healey says it in his Autumn Budget speech to the House of Commons on 28 October 2026, NO if he doesn't.
- How it's judged:
- Source: the speech text HM Treasury publishes on gov.uk (gov.uk/government/speeches) on Budget day.
- If the delivered speech differs from the published text (the "check against delivery" caveat), the delivered words win, checked against the Parliament TV / Hansard record of the speech.
- Only the Chancellor's own speech counts: not the Budget documents, not the OBR, not the opposition reply, not interventions or heckles.
- Case doesn't matter.