Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
None of the above happens by 2500 47.9%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado2 ene 24, 21:44 UTC31 dic 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the following events all occur by December 1, 2026?
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PolymarketReglas
I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.
- Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a schism:
- The denomination with more than 50% of the sum of adherents to all denominations descended from the 2024 Catholic Church will be considered "Catholic" for the purposes of this market.
- If no single denomination meets this >50% threshold, the market will resolve as "The papacy is abolished".
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first??
- Manifold Markets cotiza None of the above happens by 2500 al 48% a fecha de 20 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first??
- Está previsto que Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2500.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.
