Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualApr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work 54.8%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado22 may 26, 23:08 UTC1 ene 29, 0:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
The Guardian: AI will help make a Nobel prize-winning discovery within a year, says Anthropic co-founder
- Sam Bowman on X (Imgur backup)
- TL;DR Jack Clark of AI lab Anthropic gave a lecture at Oxford where, among other things, he showed a slide shown in [2] which featured some of his own predictions, which was a subject of The Guardian's article in [1].
- The ones above the line are used as basis for questions in this market.
- The questions are lightly paraphrased to save space; refer to the original slide for full phrasing and see the resolution criteria below for more info.
- Notes on resolution criteria:
Mercados abiertos
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- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 12,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 182,3 mil €
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- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
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- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 resultados más
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- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,4 M €
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- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work al 55% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true??
- Está previsto que Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The Guardian: AI will help make a Nobel prize-winning discovery within a year, says Anthropic co-founder