Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?
RegulaciónOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.EuropaTecnologíaIAPolítica2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualApr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work 54.8%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado22 may 26, 23:08 UTC1 ene 29, 0:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
Manifold MarketsReglas
The Guardian: AI will help make a Nobel prize-winning discovery within a year, says Anthropic co-founder
- Sam Bowman on X (Imgur backup)
- TL;DR Jack Clark of AI lab Anthropic gave a lecture at Oxford where, among other things, he showed a slide shown in [2] which featured some of his own predictions, which was a subject of The Guardian's article in [1].
- The ones above the line are used as basis for questions in this market.
- The questions are lightly paraphrased to save space; refer to the original slide for full phrasing and see the resolution criteria below for more info.
- Notes on resolution criteria:
