Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 88.3%
Pronosticadores
36
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado12 jun 25, 0:25 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Which "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true?
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PolymarketReglas
Three prongs:
- 1) China agreeing to AI pause or
- 2) open AI having $3T revenue or
- 3) open AI having 80% of global compute by eoy 2028
- Inspired by my offer to @ScottAlexander on Twitter
- https://x.com/abcampbell/status/1909178653050880152
Mercados abiertos
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 11,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 38,7 mil €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 resultados más
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volumen total
- 356,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 13,5 mil €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volumen total
- 2,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 11 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 88% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true??
- Está previsto que Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Three prongs: