Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 25 jul 2026, 8:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Pronóstico comunitario actualBefore September 2026 5.2%-11.0ptLíder entre 13 opciones
Pronosticadores
64
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado anteayer
Desactualizado8 ago 25, 18:3730 ago 26, 18:36
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Before August 20262%
Comparar plataformas· Before September 2026
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMejor en general90% de coincidencia · verificado | Baja | 64% | — | 17,6 € | 18,6 mil € | hace 17 minutos | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 5% | — | — | — | anteayer |
También disponible en Kalshi
When will xAI release Grok 5?
8.0 pts2m
58.7%
-8.0pt36.7%
4.6%
49 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total38,2 mil €
Volumen 24h17,6 €
KALSHIReglas
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$5008 jul8d de datos25 jul
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"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)