Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2027 41.3%-9.1ptLíder entre 17 opciones
Pronosticadores
36
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-9.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado8 ago 25, 19:45 UTC31 dic 26, 20:44 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This market refers to OpenAI's next open-weight model release, regardless of what it is ultimately named.
- Minor naming changes from the working name 'GPT-OSS' will count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercados abiertos
AI
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- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2027 al 41% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date?
- Está previsto que OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market refers to OpenAI's next open-weight model release, regardless of what it is ultimately named.