Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2027-01-01 96.3%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+8.3 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado31 ago 26, 14:57 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
The '+' means any version at or above 5.4 counts: if Z.ai skips 5.4 and releases GLM 5.5 or GLM 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called GLM 5.4, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
