Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 23 oct 2026, 20:46 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualOther 72.5%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado8 mar 25, 7:05 UTC31 ene 29, 15:59 UTC
Tendencias
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PolymarketReglas
This market resolves to the first tax year in which American citizens who are considered tax residents outside the United States (‘expats’) will owe no U.S. taxes on income earned overseas.
- Specifically, this means that in the given tax year:
- • Foreign labor income earned while physically outside the U.S. will be completely exempt from U.S. taxation.
- • Americans abroad may still be required to file tax returns, report income, or pay U.S. taxes on domestic-sourced activities (e.g., sales of U.S. property, domestic investments, U.S.-based business activities).
- • The exemption must apply broadly to American citizens who qualify as tax residents abroad, not merely specific exemptions such as the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion (FEIE), Foreign Tax Credit, or treaty-based exceptions.
- • The exemption must be enacted into law or confirmed by official IRS guidance or regulation.