Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore February 2027 93.4%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 minutos
1 sept 26, 18:13 UTC2 feb 27, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketReglas
Claude Fable 5.1 released on September 1st, 2026.
- This market resolves YES when Anthropic's next Fable-class model is released to the public (e.g. Fable 5.2) This market will resolve YES even if the model's release is restricted to particular countries, as long as it is publicly available within those countries (a Glasswing situation would not count).
- If the model is not named Fable, it can still resolve YES if public statements from Anthropic indicate it is intended to be in the same line as Mythos/Fable, but new Opus/Sonnet/Haiku models would not cause this market to resolve YES, even if they were more capable then the current Fable 5 model.
- At the time of the model's release, all options that are correct will resolve YES.
- All options resolve NO if no such model is released by the end of January.
- I will resolve options as they become resolvable.
