Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
IAOne-OffTecnología3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 54.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado30 ago 26, 18:46 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
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PolymarketReglas
In AI 2027, at the end of 2026, the leading AI lab released a model dubbed Agent 1 mini, which was 10x cheaper than the previous state of the art Agent 1.
- Claude Fable's benchmark scores are mostly above the level predicted for Agent 1 in AI 2027 (outscoring the projections for OS World and Cybench, with Mythos Preview scoring similarly to the projected METR 80% time horizon, though somewhat below).
- This market seeks to track if a model of approximately Agent 1 mini capabilities is released by the date AI 2027 projected.
- This market will resolve YES if any AI is released that scores at least as well as Claude Fable 5 on at least 8 out of 10 of the following benchmarks, and whose output tokens are at least 10x cheaper than Claude Fable 5's, by the end of 2026.
- The model must be released by the end of March to the public, but resolution may happen later due to the benchmarks being run later.
- Resolution sources are included with each benchmark, though these are subject to change for now
Mercados abiertos
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 55% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026??
- Está previsto que Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: In AI 2027, at the end of 2026, the leading AI lab released a model dubbed Agent 1 mini, which was 10x cheaper than the previous state of the art Agent 1.