What will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
31.7 pts (24h)RegulaciónOne-OffMacro y economíaTecnologíaEspacioEconomíaIAGeopolíticaChinaAmérica LatinaSalud y medicina3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualA country officially transitions to 100% renewable energy for electricity. 81.7%+31.7ptLíder entre 16 opciones
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+31.7 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 minutos
11 oct 26, 3:29 UTC31 dic 29, 11:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- Each option in this market resolves independently to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specified event occurs on or before December 31, 2029, 23:59 UTC:
- A human lands on Mars: Resolves YES if a crewed space mission successfully lands a living human on the surface of Mars.
- A major global economy adopts a central bank digital currency (CBDC): Resolves YES if a top-10 economy by nominal GDP (e.g., US, China, Eurozone members, Japan, UK, India, Brazil) officially launches and deploys a retail or commercial CBDC nationally.
- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is officially recognized by a major research body: Resolves YES if a major AI research institution (e.g., OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, or an international body like AAAI) formally announces that an AI system has achieved human-level general intelligence.
- A permanent base is established on the Moon: Resolves YES if a habitat intended for sustained or recurring human presence (e.g., NASA Artemis Base Camp or the International Lunar Research Station) is operational on the lunar surface.
