What will happen in the world in the 2030s
32.9 pts (24h)ChinaOne-OffIATecnologíaSalud y medicinaEspacio13aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualThe world population exceeds 8.5 billion 82.9%+32.9ptLíder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+32.9 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado11 oct 26, 8:34 UTC31 dic 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
What will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
Manifold MarketsWhich positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves each option independently to YES if the specified event occurs or condition is met between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2039, and NO otherwise.
- Standard resolutions will be determined using official data from recognized international institutions, government bodies, or reputable news reporting.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if the World Health Organization (WHO) formally declares a global pandemic or Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for a pathogen that leads to widespread global travel restrictions or global reported mortality exceeding 1 million deaths during the 2030s.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if major independent governance tracking organizations (e.g., Freedom House or the V-Dem Institute) classify all sovereign nations worldwide as non-democratic or authoritarian.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if major AI research organizations or professional bodies (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or AAAI) formally announce or reach scientific consensus that a system meets an established operational definition of AGI.