Aviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 19:35 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%Líder entre 10 opciones
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%Pronosticadores
33
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado12 jul 24, 17:20 UTC30 jun 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform UK top the YouGov voting intention poll at the time of the next UK general election, but lose?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk donate at least £10 million to Reform UK before the next general election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiReglas
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?
- Please feel free to request additional answers to be added.
- I've decided to keep control over adding answers so I can make sure they're worded in a way that is either unambiguous or that I am happy to arbitrate on, but I'm very open to suggestions.
- I'm inclined not to add lots of options for individual Conservative MPs defecting to Reform UK just because there's so many of them.
- Maybe a separate market for that?
- For the ones about defections, they need to cross from one party to the other.