Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 73.9%
Pronosticadores
149
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado13 ago 24, 23:58 UTC15 ago 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWhich UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketUK election called by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Win as in forms the next government.
- In the case of a coalition, if reform is the larger party in the coalition I will resolve yes, otherwise if they are the minor party in the coalition I will cancel the market and return funds.
- This seems fairest to me as even if they are in government I wouldn’t say they have technically “won” being a the smaller party of a coalition, and they haven’t really lost, either.
- List of my other reform related markets:
- https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-win-less-than-50-seats
- https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-uk-and-the-conservative
