U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?
Política comercialOne-OffGeopolíticaAmérica Latina1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 92.1%
Pronosticadores
41
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 minutos
9 jun 26, 14:33 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Here is a revised draft that eliminates the potential ambiguities regarding international waters, proxy forces, and other U.S. agencies, while keeping the core conditions of your original market intact.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC, the United States military or the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) conducts a deliberate kinetic action against the sovereign territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Brazil, or against Brazilian state/military assets operating in international domains.
- "Kinetic action" is defined as the active, deliberate use of lethal or physically destructive force.
- Examples include airstrikes, drone strikes, missile strikes, naval bombardments, or ground combat engagements.
- Covert & Proxy Actions: The action must be carried out directly by U.S. military personnel, CIA operatives, or private military companies (PMCs) actively contracted and directed by these entities.
