Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: Yes (99%)
Resuelto: 13 ago 2026, 7:15
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Resultado Ganador
Yes
A 7 días
—
A 24 horas
—
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 99%
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 días
Desactualizado16 jul 26, 5:5913 ago 26, 7:15
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes99%
No1%
99%
1%
Reglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the United States military conducts at least one kinetic strike (including airstrikes, drone strikes, missile strikes, or naval/artillery bombardment) within the internationally recognized territorial borders of Iran (including its mainland and sovereign islands) at any point from August 1, 2026, to August 31, 2026, inclusive.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Key Details:
- Target Location: Strikes must hit targets physically located within Iran's sovereign territory.
- Cyberattacks, kinetic strikes against Iranian-aligned proxy forces outside of Iran (e.g., in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen), or maritime blockades/ship disabling in international waters do not count unless accompanied by kinetic strikes on Iranian territory.
