¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 52.4% a fecha de 12 de noviembre de 2026.

Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 52.4%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 24 minutos

21 may 24, 11:25 UTC25 may 35, 15:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Resolves YES is someone changes the physical world to win profits on manifold markets before 2035.

Threshold criteria:
someone must do something single-handedly that could swing the claim.
The action must happen in the physical world rather than the digital world.
The person must make money or mana off of it.
The incident should be notable enough that it makes the news or lands in the courts.