Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
IAOne-Off3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 72.8%
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Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado14 ago 25, 22:55 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Follow-on from https://manifold.markets/Jasonb/will-a-gpt4-level-efficient-hrm-bas, since I'm interested in the possibility (or impossibility) of architectural innovations more broadly.
- Resolution criteria:
- The architecture must be meaningfully different from an auto-regressive transformer, either not transformer based at all, or a significant fusion of a transformer with other components.
- To clarify, something similar to incorporation of Mixture-of-Experts would not count, but diffusion based LLMs would (though they also need to meet the other criteria).
- The model must be significantly better than previous LLMs in some important aspect.
- E.g. for the same amount of training data it achieves much higher performance, or it can achieve similar performance to frontier models with far fewer parameters, or it lacks some failure mode common to current or future transformer-based LLMs.
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 73% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026??
- Está previsto que Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Follow-on from https://manifold.markets/Jasonb/will-a-gpt4-level-efficient-hrm-bas, since I'm interested in the possibility (or impossibility) of architectural innovations more broadly.