Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 20261m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 59.9%
Pronosticadores
24
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 24 minutos
19 nov 25, 13:48 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
Manifold MarketsWill the 2026 US Midterm Elections generally be considered free and fair?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 2026 US Midterm elections?
FutuurWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if there is a difference of three percentage points or more between the final 'RCP Average' polling margin and the national popular vote margin at the 2026 elections for the United States House of Representatives.
- Clarifications
- The 'RCP Average' polling margin will be supplied by the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote page on the RealClearPolling website (see the 'spread' column).
- The national popular vote margin is the margin (in percentage points) between the Democratic and Republican parties.
- A difference of 'three percentage points or more' must not be a difference that merely rounds up to three percentage points.
