Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElección2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 57%
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado19 nov 25, 13:48 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if there is a difference of three percentage points or more between the final 'RCP Average' polling margin and the national popular vote margin at the 2026 elections for the United States House of Representatives.
- Clarifications
- The 'RCP Average' polling margin will be supplied by the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote page on the RealClearPolling website (see the 'spread' column).
- The national popular vote margin is the margin (in percentage points) between the Democratic and Republican parties.
- A difference of 'three percentage points or more' must not be a difference that merely rounds up to three percentage points.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 57% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections??
- Está previsto que Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? se resuelva el 30 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria