OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria)
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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 21:13 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 75%
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Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado14 mar 26, 8:36 UTC31 dic 32, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
OpenAI fails financially before Dec 31 2032.
- Settlement criteria: if one or more of the following happens before the deadline, the claim resolves to YES.
- (1) Acquisition for severe discount.
- OpenAI is purchased by another firm for a valuation that is less than half of its 2025 valuation (US$500 billion 2025 dollars.) (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/openai-share-sale-500-billion-valuation.html) Purchase price will be inflation adjusted to compare with the 2025 valuation.
- (2) OpenAI cannot pay its bills and fails to provide services.
- OpenAI becomes like pets.com in the early 2000s.
