Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
InflaciónOne-OffEventos corporativosNegocios y empresasTecnologíaIA4a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 17:02 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
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Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
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Actualizado hace 54 minutos
Retrasado2 feb 24, 14:06 UTC2 ene 31, 4:59 UTC
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To prevent private market shenanigans it will have to be 2 $1bn+ valuation rounds in series, or an acquisition, IPO or direct listing at $1bn+.
- For public markets valuations I will take the valuation at the close of the trading day.
- EDIT - 2025/08/28
- The $1bn amount will be adjusted for inflation using CPI index for year end 2023 as the base year.
- My discretion will be used to adjudicate how contractor use applies to the “one person” criteria.
- I will not bet in this market.
