Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoEste mercado está cerrado y esperando una resolución confirmada.
Esperando resolución verificada
CoinRithm espera una liquidación confirmada por el proveedor antes de tratar este mercado como resuelto.
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 94%
Pronosticadores
69
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado10 may 26, 20:4431 ago 26, 23:59
Tendencias
94%
6%
Reglas
As reported by METR's point estimate, and using METR's cited date of release.
- If an August announcement is made but not measured, I will wait until Dec 1 to resolve.
- If updates to the testing set are made, e.g. TH1.2, we will use the latest iteration's numbers.
- If METR reports 80% TH is 'likely greater than 10h' (or some threshold higher than 10h) but without a point estimate--as they did for Mythos 50% TH--this resolves yes.
- If METR ceases to report or regularly test frontier models I will N/A. I may trade on this market.
