Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 81.1%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 47 minutos
Retrasado6 mar 26, 1:01 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Inspiration: https://xcancel.com/ajeya_cotra/status/2029576934523556256#m
- Will a model released this year (2026) be evaluated by METR to have a 50% time horizon of over 100 hours within 6 months of its release?
- Resolves using their most up-to-date methodology at the time (currently the 1.1 time horizon).
- I will tend to try and resolve to the spirit of the question in edge cases, rather than its letter, but I'm happy to take questions and try to provide clarifications in advance.