Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual32-64 Hours 51.5%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado20 dic 25, 13:36 UTC1 ene 27, 13:33 UTC
Tendencias
0.4%
0.4%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 8 hours.
- If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A. Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the METR time horizon estimate breaks down or is ambiguous/unknown, the market will resolve to the best point estimate even if the confidence interval is wide.
Mercados abiertos
AI
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
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+5 resultados más
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- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 32-64 Hours al 52% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027??
- Está previsto que What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 8 hours.