Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual4h - 5h 20.4%Líder entre 15 opciones
Pronosticadores
31
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado8 ago 25, 23:09 UTC31 oct 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
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PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first DeepSeek V4 Pro model to appear on METR's graph.
- V4 Pro variants (Preview, GA) count for the purpose of this market.
- V3 / R1 or earlier would not count.
- Later DeepSeek models would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
