Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual4h - 5h 20.3%Líder entre 15 opciones
Pronosticadores
31
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado8 ago 25, 23:09 UTC31 oct 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first DeepSeek V4 Pro model to appear on METR's graph.
- V4 Pro variants (Preview, GA) count for the purpose of this market.
- V3 / R1 or earlier would not count.
- Later DeepSeek models would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de DeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon?
- Manifold Markets cotiza 4h - 5h al 20% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve DeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon?
- Está previsto que DeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon se resuelva el 31 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida DeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first DeepSeek V4 Pro model to appear on METR's graph.